Protection Visa Success Rate Australia

What is the protection visa success rate Australia-wide?

The latest protection visa success rate Australia's Department of Home Affairs has published is 37.71 per cent, for onshore Subclass 866 decisions made in August 2026. In that month, 750 people were granted a final protection visa from 1,989 refugee status determinations.

That figure is the most recent monthly result in the Department's published series at the time of writing. It is not a stable number. In July 2026 the published rate was 39.19 per cent. In June 2026 it was 5.18 per cent. The protection visa success rate Australia reports from month to month depends heavily on which cases the Department happens to decide in that month.

This article sets out the latest published figures, explains what they measure, shows how they differ by nationality, and explains what they can and cannot tell an individual applicant. Every figure in this article comes from the Department's monthly updates on onshore Subclass 866 processing, or from the Administrative Review Tribunal's own caseload statistics. No figure has been taken from any other source.

Why the figures matter

People researching the protection visa success rate Australia publishes are usually deciding whether to apply, whether to seek review, or whether to pay for legal help. The figures are a useful starting point for that decision. But they describe groups of cases, not individual claims, and they should be read with that limitation in mind.

Where the analysis of the figures is discussed

Our article on protection visa success rates in Australia discusses why the published rates move and what decides individual cases. This article focuses on the current numbers, by month and by nationality.

How the Department calculates the protection visa success rate Australia publishes

The Department calculates the published grant rate by dividing the number of people granted a final protection visa in a month by the number of refugee status determinations made in that month.

What a final protection visa grant includes

The Department's monthly update defines a final protection visa grant as a grant of a protection visa either at the primary stage or following remittal from merits review or judicial review. The grant figure therefore includes some people whose applications were first refused and later sent back to the Department by the Tribunal or a court.

What a refugee status determination includes

The Department defines refugee status determinations as all departmental Subclass 866 visa decisions made either before or after merits review. The denominator therefore also includes decisions made after a case returned from review.

What the figures count

The figures count people, not applications. A single family application can add several people to both the grant figure and the determination figure. The Department also notes that its reporting is event based, so a person who lodges more than one application over a period can be counted more than once.

Why this matters

Because the figures combine first decisions with decisions made after review, and count people rather than applications, the protection visa success rate Australia publishes is best read as a processing measure. It shows what came off the Department's queue that month. It is not the probability that a new application will succeed.

The latest monthly figures

The latest three monthly updates published by the Department show large changes in the grant rate from month to month, even though the law and the legal test did not change.

June 2026

• Lodgements: 1,613
• Refugee status determinations: 3,147
• Final protection visas granted: 163
• Published grant rate: 5.18 per cent
• Awaiting a refugee status determination at the end of the month: 20,300

July 2026

• Lodgements: 1,817
• Refugee status determinations: 2,169
• Final protection visas granted: 850
• Published grant rate: 39.19 per cent
• Awaiting a refugee status determination at the end of the month: 20,217

August 2026

• Lodgements: 2,003
• Refugee status determinations: 1,989
• Final protection visas granted: 750
• Published grant rate: 37.71 per cent
• Awaiting a refugee status determination at the end of the month: 20,625

What the three months show

Across these three months the protection visa success rate Australia recorded moved from about one in twenty to almost four in ten. The on hand caseload stayed at around 20,000 people awaiting a decision. The change reflects which groups of cases were decided, not a change in how claims are assessed.

How the protection visa success rate Australia records compares with the caseload

The protection visa success rate Australia records should be read alongside the size of the caseload, because the number of people waiting for a decision shapes how long applications take and which cases are decided each month.

Lodgements and decisions

In August 2026 the Department received 2,003 new lodgements and made 1,989 refugee status determinations. In July 2026 it received 1,817 lodgements and made 2,169 determinations. In June 2026 it received 1,613 lodgements and made 3,147 determinations. When lodgements and decisions are close, the queue stays roughly the same size.

The on hand caseload

The number of people awaiting a refugee status determination at the end of each month was 20,300 in June, 20,217 in July and 20,625 in August 2026. A caseload of this size means many applications wait a long time for a decision.

What this means for applicants

A long wait is normal. It is also an opportunity. Time before the interview can be used to strengthen the claim, gather evidence and deal with any inconsistency. Our article on protection visa processing times explains the waiting period in more detail.

Protection visa success rate Australia by nationality

The protection visa success rate Australia records for each nationality differs widely and changes from month to month. The Department's monthly update lists the countries with the most grants in each month, together with the grant rate for each.

August 2026: grants and grant rates for selected nationalities

• Malaysia: 105 granted, 76.64 per cent
• India: 88 granted, 36.67 per cent
• China (excluding SARs): 69 granted, 29.24 per cent
• Indonesia: 69 granted, 48.25 per cent
• Myanmar: 61 granted, 98.39 per cent
• Vietnam: 47 granted, 44.76 per cent
• Pakistan: 41 granted, 46.59 per cent
• Fiji: 23 granted, 18.25 per cent
• Bangladesh: 19 granted, 38.00 per cent
• Philippines: 14 granted, 25.45 per cent
• Sri Lanka: 11 granted, 22.45 per cent

July 2026: grants and grant rates for selected nationalities

• Malaysia: 188 granted, 81.03 per cent
• Pakistan: 104 granted, 78.79 per cent
• China (excluding SARs): 68 granted, 23.86 per cent
• Myanmar: 66 granted, 100.00 per cent
• Bangladesh: 56 granted, 54.37 per cent
• Indonesia: 50 granted, 32.47 per cent
• Sri Lanka: 43 granted, 58.11 per cent
• India: 37 granted, 21.26 per cent
• Fiji: 32 granted, 21.33 per cent
• Philippines: 12 granted, 13.04 per cent

June 2026: the countries with the most grants

In June 2026, when the overall rate was 5.18 per cent, the countries with the most grants were Myanmar (34 granted, 94.44 per cent), Pakistan (20 granted, 11.11 per cent), Lebanon (18 granted, 42.86 per cent), Iraq (12 granted, 92.31 per cent) and Papua New Guinea (12 granted, 26.09 per cent).

Reading the nationality figures

The protection visa success rate Australia shows for a nationality in one month is a poor guide to the next month. The same nationality can show very different rates in consecutive months. Pakistan recorded 11.11 per cent in June 2026, 78.79 per cent in July 2026 and 46.59 per cent in August 2026. Indonesia recorded 32.47 per cent in July 2026 and 48.25 per cent in August 2026. These swings reflect the particular cases decided, the types of claims involved, and how many decisions were made for that nationality in the month.

Why nationality figures move so much

Nationality figures move because each monthly figure is based on the cases the Department decided that month, and the number and type of cases decided for any one nationality can change sharply.

Small numbers

The protection visa success rate Australia records for smaller nationalities is especially volatile. For many nationalities, the number of decisions in a month is small. A handful of grants or refusals can move the percentage by a large amount.

Batches of similar cases

The Department sometimes finalises groups of cases with similar features, such as a particular kind of claim or a particular period of lodgement. When that happens, the rate for that nationality can rise or fall sharply for that month.

Different claims within one nationality

People from the same country make very different claims. Some claims are political, some religious, some based on family violence, sexual orientation or ethnicity. A nationality figure combines all of them. It says nothing about how a particular kind of claim is being decided.

Remitted cases

Because grants after remittal from review are included, a month in which many remitted cases are finalised can lift the rate for a nationality without reflecting new first-instance decisions.

The practical point

For these reasons, the protection visa success rate Australia records for your nationality should not be read as your chance of success. A claim with strong evidence and a clear legal basis can succeed in a month when the nationality figure is low. A weak claim can be refused in a month when it is high.

Where protection visa applications come from

The Department's monthly update also lists the countries with the most new lodgements, which shows where current applications are coming from.

Top lodgement countries in August 2026

• China (excluding SARs): 348
• India: 191
• Fiji: 151
• Philippines: 103
• Pakistan: 99
• Indonesia: 87
• Vietnam: 75
• Bangladesh: 59
• Iran: 56
• Timor-Leste: 56

How lodgements relate to grants

Countries with high lodgement numbers do not necessarily have high grant numbers in the same month. Applications lodged now will generally be decided much later. The lodgement figures describe future caseload, not current outcomes.

What the Department notes about lodgements

The Department notes that its lodgement figures include all lodgements, regardless of whether an application is later found to be invalid or is withdrawn.

The protection visa success rate Australia records at the Tribunal

At the Administrative Review Tribunal, the protection caseload summary for July 2025 recorded that 9 per cent of finalised protection reviews were set aside, and that more than half of the affirmed matters were dismissals rather than decisions on the merits.

The July 2025 figures

The Tribunal's protection caseload summary for 1 July 2025 to 31 July 2025 recorded:

• Applications lodged: 1,465
• Applications finalised: 2,370
• Set aside: 224, or 9 per cent
• Affirmed: 1,846, or 78 per cent, including 1,007 dismissals
• Withdrawn: 171, or 7 per cent
• Other outcomes: 137, or 6 per cent
• Active applications at 31 July 2025: 41,864

What the dismissal figure means

A dismissal generally means the review ended without a decision on the merits, for example because the applicant did not attend or did not respond. In July 2025, dismissals made up more than half of the matters recorded as affirmed. Those reviews were not lost because the claims were weak. They were lost because the review was not pursued.

Why this figure is older

The Tribunal's most recent detailed protection statistics available at the time of writing cover July 2025. They are older than the Department's figures and should be read with that in mind. Our guide to the Subclass 866 refusal and ART process explains how the review works.

Common misreadings of the protection visa success rate Australia figures

The protection visa success rate Australia figures are often misread. Four misreadings are especially common, and each can lead to a poor decision.

Treating one month as a trend

A single month's figure does not show a trend. The rate moved from 5.18 per cent in June 2026 to 39.19 per cent in July 2026 without any change in the law. At least several months should be read together.

Comparing the Department and Tribunal figures directly

The Department's grant rate and the Tribunal's set aside rate measure different things, at different stages, and over different periods. A Department grant rate of around 38 per cent and a Tribunal set aside rate of 9 per cent cannot simply be compared or added together.

Treating a grant rate as a probability

A grant rate describes decisions already made. It is not the probability that a new application will succeed. The probability for an individual depends on the facts and the evidence.

Relying on figures without a source

Figures quoted without a date or an official source should not be relied on. The protection visa success rate Australia figures in this article are dated and sourced so that they can be checked.

What the figures cannot tell you

The protection visa success rate Australia publishes cannot tell you whether your claim is credible, whether it meets the legal test, whether relocation or state protection will be found against you, or how your application was prepared. Those are the things that decide individual cases.

Credibility

Most protection decisions turn on whether the decision maker accepts the applicant's account. The figures do not show how many refusals were credibility findings.

Preparation

The figures do not show which applicants had advice, which attended their interviews, or which answered the Department's requests. Our article on evidence in a protection visa application explains the evidence that supports a claim.

Type of claim

The figures do not break down outcomes by type of claim. A political claim, a religious claim, a claim based on sexual orientation and a complementary protection claim are all counted together.

Timing

The figures show decisions made in a month, not applications lodged in a month. An application lodged today will be decided in a future month, with a different mix of cases.

How to use the protection visa success rate Australia figures in your own case

The best way to use the protection visa success rate Australia figures in your own case is as context, not as a forecast: they show the scale of the process and the risk of refusal, and they confirm why the first application must be prepared properly.

As a reason to prepare, not a reason to despair

A low monthly figure does not mean your claim will fail. A high monthly figure does not mean it will succeed. What the figures do show is that many applications are refused. Because section 48A of the Migration Act 1958 generally prevents a further protection visa application in Australia after a refusal, the first application should be the strongest possible application.

As a reason to pursue review properly

The Tribunal figures show that many reviews end without a decision on the merits. An applicant who is refused and seeks review should attend, respond and prepare. Our page on protection visa refusals explains the first steps after a refusal.

As a reason to check your own claim

The figures cannot assess your claim. An assessment of the claim against the legal test, of earlier visa applications for inconsistencies, and of relocation and state protection issues can. Our article on whether you are eligible for a protection visa explains the test.

What the protection visa success rate Australia figures mean at each stage

The protection visa success rate Australia figures mean different things depending on where an applicant is in the process.

If you are about to apply

The figures show that many applications are refused, and that the first application is critical. Our page on the Subclass 866 protection visa sets out the requirements, and our article on applying on a tourist visa deals with the most common starting point.

If you are waiting for an interview

The figures cannot tell you how your interview will go. Preparation can. Our guide to the protection visa interview explains what to expect.

If you have been refused

The Tribunal figures show that many reviews are lost for procedural reasons. A review applied for in time, attended and properly prepared is in a different position. Our guide to appealing a protection visa refusal to the ART explains the process.

If your claim relies on complementary protection

The figures do not separate refugee and complementary protection outcomes. Our page on complementary protection explains that test.

When these protection visa success rate Australia figures will be updated

The Department publishes its onshore Subclass 866 figures monthly, and this article is reviewed quarterly so that the protection visa success rate Australia figures shown here remain current.

What to check

When reading any figure about protection visa outcomes, check the month it relates to, whether it comes from the Department or the Tribunal, and what it counts. A figure without a date or a source should not be relied on.

The dates of the figures in this article

The Department figures in this article are from the monthly updates for June, July and August 2026. The Tribunal figures are from the protection caseload summary for July 2025.

How My Migration Lawyers approaches protection matters in light of the figures

My Migration Lawyers approaches every protection matter on the basis that the protection visa success rate Australia publishes shows real risk, and that the outcome of an individual case depends on how the claim is prepared, presented and followed through. The firm acts in many protection matters of every kind, including complex claims at the application, interview and review stages.

The firm is led by Weiwei Zhang, Principal Lawyer. My Migration Lawyers is capable of handling protection matters for applicants from many countries, with claims based on political opinion, religion, sexual orientation, family violence, ethnicity and complementary protection.

Before lodgement

The firm assesses the claim against the legal test, reviews the client's immigration history and earlier visa applications itself, and identifies relocation, state protection and credibility risks before anything is lodged.

Preparing and presenting the claim

The statement of claims is the client's own account. My Migration Lawyers helps the client set it out completely and in order, and presents the client's evidence in the form the law requires. The client reviews and corrects the statement and decides which claims are advanced.

Through the process

The firm acts as the Department's contact point, prepares the client for the interview, attends with them and responds to requests and adverse information within the deadlines. If a refusal occurs, it advises on review. The firm does not promise outcomes and does not publish success rates of its own. It works to make sure a client's claim is not lost for reasons that could have been avoided.

Book a consultation with My Migration Lawyers through our online booking page. If your matter is urgent, you can also call 1300 040 300. You can also read more about our protection visa lawyers.